America's late-cycle moment
When Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates and one of the most influential figures in global finance, warns that the United States is approaching a phase of internal collapse, it is an elite admission that the system, which once appeared self-correcting, stable and permanent, is now struggling to reproduce its own legitimacy -- at home and increasingly abroad. For much of the post-war era, America’s domestic authority and global standing reinforced one another. Institutional coherence underwrote international credibility, while global dominance masked internal fracture. However, that alignment is now breaking down. As Washington’s ability to command consent within its own borders erodes, so too does the moral and political authority it once projected outward. In a recent essay drawing on his 2021 book Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order, Dalio argues that the United States is moving from “Phase Five” of a long historical cycle defined by economic stress, institu...